Social Media’s Rep as Trend Predictor Takes a Hit



A Princeton investigate team, led by Felix Ming Fai Wong, has found that Twitter is not as arguable a predictor of a future, during slightest in terms of film sales. After examining Tweets during a Oscar deteriorate and comparing them to reviews during Rotten Tomatoes and other sites, a group dynamic that Twitter posters tend to be some-more certain than a ubiquitous positive, according to Technology Review.

This anticipating is of seductiveness to marketers though shows that Twitter doesn’t reason many guarantee in a space of predictive analytics, they concluded.

Previous Research

The investigate counters commentary from an progressing one in that dual researchers during HP Labs established a couple between Tweets and how good a film would do.  Their correctness rate was improved than a Hollywood Stock Exchange, that a attention uses, noted Fast Company during a time.

Other Indicators Show Promise

However, it is doubtful that a Princeton investigate will means marketers and investigate to desert a guarantee that amicable media information holds. In a final choosing cycle, Facebook’s domestic group said that a fans likely some-more than 70% of pivotal races formed on their “likes”. It tracked 98 of a many hotly contested House races; of these 74% of a possibilities with a many Facebook fans won their races.  In that same election, a strong, positive association was found between altogether amicable media opening and voting goal among Iowans, according to Sociagility, that practical a brand-focused PRINT algorithm to front-running Republican possibilities and compared a information with polling information from Public Policy Polling.

In fact, a clever association between amicable media opening and voting goal among Iowans (0.83 out of a probable 1.0 maximum) was roughly matched by a association (0.82) between a candidate’s PRINT measure for Facebook and inhabitant voting intention.

Also, during slightest one comprehension group has faith this information can produce results: final year a Intelligence Advanced Research Project launched a supposed Open Source Indicators Program to cave amicable media information to envision such events as protests, riots, militant attacks, domestic and charitable crisis, mass violence, mass migrations, illness outbreaks, mercantile instability, apparatus shortages and responses to healthy disasters.


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